Investors are anticipating the upcoming inflation data to provide insights into the direction of the economy and potential Federal Reserve actions. They are particularly focused on the core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), considered the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. This data may influence expectations about future interest rate adjustments, market performance, and the overall economic outlook.
The Dow underperformed in the second quarter due to a pullback in the second quarter, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq made gains. This was influenced by a strong AI theme that propelled concentration in the overall market, causing the Dow to lag behind.
The expected year-over-year increase for the headline PCE is 2.6%. This is based on the consensus forecast for May's core personal consumption expenditures price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.