
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May showed a deceleration in consumer price increases compared to the previous month and the same period last year6. The CPI was flat over the previous month and increased by 3.3% over the prior year in May, down from April's 3.4% year-over-year increase. On a "core" basis, which excludes the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in May climbed 0.2% over the prior month and 3.4% over last year, also showing slower growth than April's data. Both monthly and yearly core CPI measures came in lower than economist expectations.

The "dot plot" is a chart that shows where each member of the Federal Reserve's policymaking committee expects interest rates to be over the next few years3. It is updated quarterly and provides insights into the Federal Reserve's future rate decisions. The dot plot displays the interest rate projections of individual Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members, with each dot representing a member's view5. By analyzing the dot plot, investors can gain a better understanding of the Fed's current thinking and anticipate future interest rate moves. However, it is important to note that these projections are subject to change as economic data and conditions evolve.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell described the Fed's response to the latest CPI data as welcoming the news during his press conference. He mentioned that the central bank would need to see similar future readings to remain confident in inflation's progress. Powell emphasized that the Fed's approach is to carefully analyze the data and make decisions accordingly, rather than waiting for things to break and then trying to fix them.