

Asian stocks rose and the dollar weakened amid expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates this year, fueled by upcoming U.S. inflation data anticipated to show reduced price pressures. Key global markets like Hong Kong, China, and Japan saw gains, with positive shifts in major currencies against the dollar.
Investor sentiment has been uplifted by prospects of rate cuts by central banks including the Fed and the European Central Bank, despite slower movements towards rate reductions in the U.S. Upcoming inflation data across various regions this week is set to influence further monetary policy decisions. Meanwhile, commodity prices, including oil and gold, have increased due to ongoing supply and demand issues.

Expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy are influenced by recent market movements and economic indicators that suggest a potential for interest rate cuts later this year123. Despite a slower pivot from the U.S. officials compared to their European counterparts, there is optimism in the markets fueled by strong company earnings and the anticipation that further rate hikes are unlikely. This sentiment is bolstered by recent U.S. data indicating softer inflation expectations, which could ease price pressures. The Federal Reserve, however, remains cautious, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasizing the need for more evidence of sustained progress towards their 2% inflation goal before any policy adjustment124. Overall, while the market remains hopeful for rate cuts, the Federal Reserve's decision will heavily depend on forthcoming economic data, particularly the inflation figures due this week12.

The specific data from the U.S. expected this week that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates includes inflation prints from various regions, as well as the Federal Reserve's first-line inflation gauge. Additionally, the University of Michigan figures, which show consumers' expectations on price changes, will also be considered. These data points will help the market finesse bets on the outlook for monetary policy.