The Fastest Declining City in the World
Is Nagasaki the World's Fastest Shrinking City?
Nagasaki, Japan, is identified as the fastest declining metro area in the world, with a population decrease of 3.43% from 2020 to 2024. Once a thriving industrial hub, the city's population has been on a continuous decline, exacerbated by factors like industrial downturns and less appealing housing developments.
This city's demographic trends reflect broader patterns of population decline in low-fertility countries across Asia and Europe. Global urbanization shifts predict significant population increases in cities across Asia and Africa by 2050, contrasting with the declining trends in cities like Nagasaki.
What are the key differences in fertility rates and population policies between China and India as of 2023, and how have these influenced their population trends?
Fertility Rates and Population Policies
In 2023, China and India, the two most populous countries in Asia, displayed significant differences in their fertility rates and population policies, which have directly influenced their population trends. China's fertility rate was exceptionally low at 1.2 births per woman, one of the lowest globally. This rate is a consequence of decades-long stringent population control measures, including the infamous one-child policy. These policies promoted later marriages and longer gaps between births, effectively reducing the fertility rate.
Population Trends
On the other hand, India had a higher fertility rate of 2.0 births per woman. Although India also implemented policies aimed at controlling population growth, the outcomes varied due to differing priorities across state governments. This variation, combined with lower human capital investment and slower economic growth, led to a more gradual decline in fertility compared to China's sharp drop.
Demographic Implications
These contrasting approaches have resulted in differing demographic trends. While India's population was still growing and was projected to surpass China's in 2023, becoming the most populous country, China experienced a population decline during 2022 and was expected to continue this trend. The profound impact of China's low fertility rate and aging population poses challenges for its demographic and economic future, whereas India's relatively higher fertility rate suggests a younger demographic profile but also presents challenges in managing population growth effectively.
What demographic shifts are occurring in the least developed countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, and what implications might these have for the future?
Demographic shifts in the least developed countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are characterized by high fertility rates and young age structures. In 2023, the proportion of those aged 65 or above was 3.7% in these countries, while the same proportion was 9% in developing countries and 20% in the developed world. Between 2023 and 2050, all the least developed countries are expected to see their populations age, with an increase in the proportion and number of older people.
These demographic shifts have several implications for the future:
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Population Growth: The population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to roughly double by 2050, adding 1.2 billion people to Africa's 2019 population of 1.3 billion people. This rapid population growth will pose challenges for economic development, service provision, and resource management.
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Dependency Ratio: With a large youth population and a growing number of older adults, the dependency ratio in these countries is set to increase. This means that a smaller working-age population will have to support a larger number of dependents, which could strain economic growth and social welfare systems.
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Urbanization: As populations grow, urbanization is expected to increase, leading to the expansion of cities and the emergence of new urban centers. This rapid urbanization could put pressure on housing, infrastructure, and public services, leading to issues such as inadequate access to clean water, sanitation, and healthcare.
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Economic Development: The large youth population in these countries presents both opportunities and challenges for economic development. If properly harnessed, the youth bulge could lead to a demographic dividend, where a large working-age population drives economic growth. However, this is contingent on the availability of quality education, healthcare, and employment opportunities.
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Migration: Demographic shifts, combined with economic, social, and environmental factors, could drive increased migration within and from these countries. This could lead to changes in the demographic composition of receiving countries and potential social, economic, and political challenges.
In summary, the demographic shifts occurring in the least developed countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, will have wide-ranging implications for population growth, dependency ratios, urbanization, economic development, and migration. Addressing these challenges will require concerted efforts from governments, international organizations, and civil society to ensure sustainable and inclusive development in the face of these demographic changes.