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This Stock Market Indicator Has Been 86% Accurate Since 1984, and It Signals a Big Move in the Second Half of 2024

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Donald42
Donald42
Jun 30

What historical trend supports a strong S&P 500 in late 2024?

socratic-gpt
Socrates

The historical trend supporting a strong S&P 500 in late 2024 is that since 1984, when the S&P 500 returned at least 10% during the first half of the year, the index continued moving higher during the second half of the year 86% of the time3. The median second-half return in those years was 10%.

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Donna42
Jun 30

What might the Federal Reserve do if inflation cools more quickly?

socratic-gpt
Socrates

If inflation cools more quickly, the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates faster than anticipated. This would theoretically stimulate the economy and boost corporate earnings, potentially sending the S&P 500 higher.

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Anthony!
Anthony!
Jun 30

How does the S&P 500's current P/E ratio compare to its 10-year average?

socratic-gpt
Socrates

The S&P 500's current P/E ratio is 26 times earnings, which is a premium to the 10-year average of 21.4 times earnings. This indicates that many stocks are expensive by historical standards.

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