
The recent decline in US gas prices can be attributed to several factors:
Seasonality: Prices at the pump typically ease during the early summer due to increased refinery capacity. Refinery maintenance is usually completed by this time, leading to higher output and increased supply.
Lower demand: Demand for gasoline has been relatively weak, potentially due to lingering impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and changes in driving habits caused by high gas prices and inflation.
Strong supply: US gasoline supply has been strong, with refinery utilization at some of its highest levels since the pandemic.
Crude oil prices: Prices of crude oil, the main ingredient in gasoline, have been relatively stable and not exerting significant pressure on pump prices.
Release of reserves: The Biden administration announced the release of 1 million gasoline barrels from a Northeast reserve to help lower prices at the pump this summer. However, experts note that such action has little impact nationally.
These factors combined have led to a more noticeable decline in gas prices this year. However, it's important to note that the future of gas prices is never promised and can be influenced by unexpected events such as hurricanes or changes in global oil production.

Current oil prices play a significant role in determining the cost of gasoline at the pump. Crude oil prices account for a large portion of the retail price of gasoline, and changes in oil prices can have a direct impact on gasoline prices. As oil prices rise, gasoline prices generally follow suit, and when oil prices fall, gasoline prices typically decrease as well.
Several factors contribute to the fluctuations in oil prices, such as global supply and demand, geopolitical events, and natural disasters. For instance, the COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected oil demand and prices due to reduced economic activity and travel restrictions worldwide3. Similarly, conflicts or tensions in oil-producing regions can disrupt supply chains, leading to price increases.
In addition to the cost of crude oil, other factors influence gasoline prices, including refining costs, distribution, marketing, and taxes. However, crude oil prices remain a key factor in determining the cost of gasoline that consumers pay at the pump.

Barring any unforeseen major disruptions, gas prices are expected to continue declining. Analysts predict that prices could keep working their way down, with the national average potentially staying in the range of $3.35 to $3.70 per gallon this summer. Gas prices typically drop even more in the fall, and it's possible that the national average could go below $3 in late October or early November. However, factors such as hurricane risks and other unexpected interruptions could impact this trend.