Will Ethereum ETFs Get Approval On Thursday? Here's What This Crypto Prediction Market Tells Us
Will Ethereum ETFs Win SEC Nod This Week?
Ethereum ETF approval odds have surged from 25% to 75% after Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas noted potential SEC changes. The price of Ethereum spiked following the news. Approval hinges on both 19b-4 filings and S-1 registration, with a key decision due by Thursday for the VanEck ETF application.
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, saw betting odds for Ethereum ETF approval jump to nearly 75% after the analyst's update. The site offers a platform for betting on various events with crypto, reflecting public sentiment and speculative outlooks on outcomes like ETF approvals.
How does the Polymarket platform allow users to bet on the outcome of events, and how are the payouts determined?
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform that allows users to bet on the outcome of various events using cryptocurrency3. These events can range from politics to sports and entertainment. The platform operates on the Ethereum blockchain and uses the Polygon Layer-2 scaling solution to improve scalability and reduce costs1.
To participate in Polymarket, users need to register with their email address and deposit USDC, a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar, into their Polymarket wallet. Once funded, users can choose from a variety of markets and purchase "outcome shares" with their USDC. These shares represent the different possible outcomes of the event in question and are priced between $0.01 and $1.00, reflecting the aggregated probability of each outcome.
The payouts are determined based on the accuracy of the user's prediction. If the predicted outcome is correct, the outcome shares can be cashed out at $1.00 each. However, if the outcome is incorrect, the shares become worthless. Users can also trade their shares at any time before the market resolution, allowing them to potentially profit from their bets even before the event takes place.
In summary, Polymarket provides a platform for users to speculate on the outcome of events by buying and trading outcome shares. The payouts are determined by the accuracy of the prediction and the market dynamics of the platform.
What recent update did Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas provide regarding the likelihood of a spot Ethereum ETF approval?
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas recently posted on X, raising his chances of a spot Ethereum ETF approval from 25% to 75%. This update made waves in the crypto markets, causing the price of ETH to skyrocket over 10% within minutes. Balchunas mentioned that he is "hearing chatter this afternoon that SEC could be doing a 180 on" spot Ethereum ETF applications. With a final deadline for multiple ETFs on May 23rd and 24th, there is pressure on the SEC to make decisions before the deadline.